NFL 2025: Week 1 - Picks & Predictions

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Date/Time: September 4, 2025, 8:20 PM ET (Lincoln Financial Field)

The 2025 NFL season kicks off with a heated NFC East rivalry matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys, pitting the defending Super Bowl champions against a Cowboys team looking to rebound from a disappointing 2024 campaign. This Thursday Night Football opener carries extra weight for Philadelphia, as they'll raise their Super Bowl LIX banner before the game, adding emotional fuel to an already intense divisional clash. Based on recent history, offseason developments, and expert projections, the Eagles enter as clear favorites, but the Cowboys' potential for an upset hinges on key players stepping up under new leadership.

Starting with the Eagles, they're coming off a dominant 14-3 regular season in 2024, where they clinched the NFC East and dismantled the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Their offense remains one of the league's most balanced and explosive units, ranking third in scoring and total yards last year. Quarterback Jalen Hurts, the Super Bowl MVP, is a dual-threat dynamo with elite rushing ability—he's already amassed 55 career rushing touchdowns, third-most ever for a QB. Expect Hurts to exploit Dallas' vulnerable run defense, which ranked near the bottom of the league in 2024, allowing over 150 rushing yards per game in losses to Philly. Running back Saquon Barkley, the 2024 Offensive Player of the Year, shredded defenses with his speed and power; he's projected to rush for 120-150 yards and at least one touchdown here, building on his 1,838-yard season. The receiving corps, led by A.J. Brown (who set an NFL record with six straight 125+ yard games) and DeVonta Smith, should feast against a Cowboys secondary that struggled with injuries and consistency. Tight end Dallas Goedert adds another mismatch weapon.

Defensively, the Eagles boast the NFL's top-rated unit per ESPN's Football Power Index, anchored by linebacker Zack Baun, defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Their pass rush, which was pivotal in containing Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, generates pressure without heavy blitzing—expect 3-4 sacks on Dak Prescott, who was inefficient before his 2024 hamstring injury (1,978 yards, 11 TDs, 8 INTs in nine games). Philadelphia's run defense should contain Dallas' underwhelming ground game, forcing the Cowboys into predictable passing situations. Offseason moves, like retaining core players and adding depth, have kept this roster intact and motivated, with head coach Nick Sirianni's joint practice record (10-2) signaling sharp preparation. However, early-season rust could show if new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's play-calling (replacing Kellen Moore) starts slow, or if the secondary's outside corner rotation falters against elite receivers.

On the Cowboys' side, 2024 was a nightmare: a 7-10 record, third in the NFC East, and their first playoff miss since 2020, plagued by defensive breakdowns, injuries (including Prescott's season-ender in Week 9), and coaching instability that led to Mike McCarthy's firing. New head coach Brian Schottenheimer, promoted from offensive coordinator, faces a rebuild with question marks. Prescott returns healthy but under pressure to perform in a contract year; he's historically strong against Philly (9-4 SU record), and could throw for 300+ yards if protected. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb remains a game-changer, potentially drawing double coverage, while newcomer George Pickens adds big-play potential. However, the offensive line is revamped with new pieces, making it susceptible to Philly's front—Dallas may drop back often, leading to turnovers if the pass rush dominates. Running back Jaydon Blue is unproven, and the ground game lacks punch.

Defensively, the Cowboys rely on stars like Micah Parsons (though his contract holdout and trade demand could limit his impact or effort early), but the unit dropped off sharply in 2024. The secondary (DaRon Bland, KaVontae Turpin) has talent, but injuries and poor run-stopping (one of the league's worst) could let Barkley and Hurts control the tempo. Offseason additions like Donovan Ezeiruaku at DE and Jack Sanborn at LB aim to shore up gaps, but this group ranks outside the top 10 in most metrics. Expectations are tempered: Dallas plays tough in big spots, but nerves on opening night against a banner-raising crowd could lead to mistakes. If Parsons disrupts and Prescott connects deep, they could keep it close; otherwise, Philly's superior talent and home dominance (8-1 in 2024, 11 straight home wins) points to control.

Overall, this feels like a statement game for the Eagles, who swept Dallas 75-13 combined in 2024's meetings. Simulations give Philly a 66-73% win probability, with ESPN's FPI favoring them by 7 points. The crowd at The Linc will be electric, potentially forcing Cowboy penalties (Dallas had 10+ in both 2024 losses to Philly). Weather in early September should be mild, favoring offenses, but Philly's balance edges out Dallas' reliance on passing. Key matchups: Eagles' OL vs. Parsons (if he plays full speed), and Cowboys' secondary vs. Brown/Smith. Injuries could shift things—monitor Prescott's health and any Eagle OL tweaks—but Philly's depth mitigates risks. Expect a competitive first half before the Eagles pull away with their rushing attack and defensive stops.

Score Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 27, Dallas Cowboys 20 (Eagles cover the -6.5 spread, over 46.5 total points).

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Date/Time: September 5, 2025, 8:00 PM ET (Corinthians Arena, São Paulo, Brazil)

This AFC West clash in Brazil marks the NFL’s second-ever Friday night game, pitting two playoff-caliber teams with elite quarterbacks and stout defenses. The Chiefs, fresh off a Super Bowl LIX loss to Philadelphia, remain a juggernaut despite a 2024 regular season where they ranked mid-tier offensively (16th in points scored). Patrick Mahomes, a two-time MVP, thrives in high-stakes games but faces questions after losing three of his last five openers. Kansas City’s offseason focused on continuity, retaining Chris Jones and bolstering the offensive line, but the potential absence of Rashee Rice (possible suspension) limits their receiving depth to Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce. Their defense, which led the NFL in DVOA last year, should keep them in games, especially against a Chargers team adjusting to new dynamics.

The Chargers, under Jim Harbaugh, posted a 10-7 record in 2024 and made the playoffs as a wild card. Justin Herbert’s arm talent (3,800+ yards in 2024) is a game-changer, but the loss of left tackle Rashawn Slater (torn patellar tendon) weakens their line, forcing rookie Joe Alt to slide to LT and Trey Pipkins III to RT. This could spell trouble against Kansas City’s pass rush, led by George Karlaftis. Los Angeles’ defense, a top-five unit in 2024 (sacks and points allowed), added depth in free agency, but their interior line and cornerback room remain vulnerabilities. The Chargers’ run game, with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, needs to control the clock to limit Mahomes’ possessions.

This neutral-site game minimizes home-field advantage, but the Chiefs’ experience in big moments (7-0 in their last seven openers vs. AFC West foes) gives them an edge. The Chargers’ healthier roster and Harbaugh’s preparation could make it close, but Kansas City’s clutch play-calling from Andy Reid and Mahomes’ ability to extend plays should prevail. Expect a low-scoring affair due to both defenses’ strength, with turnovers (possibly a Herbert interception under pressure) deciding the outcome. Simulations give the Chiefs a 58-62% win probability, with a tight spread (-2.5).

Score Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Los Angeles Chargers 20 (Chiefs cover -3.5, under 44.5 total points)

New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET (Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA)

 The Saints face a challenging 2025 after a dismal 2024 (4-13, last in NFC South), with Derek Carr’s retirement sparking a quarterback competition between rookies Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener. None inspire confidence, and their tough early schedule (49ers, Seahawks, Bills in September) projects a low win total (5.2 per The Athletic). New Orleans’ offense relies on Chris Olave and an aging Alvin Kamara, but the offensive line’s struggles and a new head coach’s adjustment period could hinder execution. Their defense, once a strength, is now aging and ranked poorly (28th in yards allowed in 2024), though additions in free agency aim to stabilize it.

The Cardinals, trending upward under Jonathan Gannon, went 8-9 in 2024 and are projected for 8-9 again. Kyler Murray, entering his seventh year, has a robust supporting cast: Trey McBride (elite TE), James Conner (1,200+ rushing yards), and rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan. Arizona’s offensive line is solid, and their defense, bolstered by a deep draft, should exploit New Orleans’ QB uncertainty. The Cardinals’ fast-paced offense (top-10 in plays per game) could overwhelm the Saints’ secondary, especially if Olave is double-teamed. New Orleans’ home-opener streak (six straight wins) is notable, but Arizona’s momentum and roster depth make them favorites. Expect Murray to throw for 250+ yards and Conner to gash a weak run defense. The Saints may keep it close early with field goals, but turnovers could doom them. Simulations favor Arizona by 60-65%.

Score Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 28, New Orleans Saints 17 (Cardinals cover -7.5, over 43.5 total points).

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET (EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL)

The Jaguars, coming off a 6-11 season, aim for a turnaround under new head coach Liam Coen. Trevor Lawrence, in a prove-it year, showed flashes of elite play (4,000+ yards in 2023) but needs consistency. His weapons—Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.—form a solid receiving trio, while Travis Etienne anchors the run game. The defense, a weak point in 2024 (25th in points allowed), added pieces but faces a manageable Panthers offense. Jacksonville’s home-field advantage (EverBank’s heat and humidity) could wear down Carolina, especially with a favorable early schedule.

Carolina, projected at 8-9 by some analysts, is banking on Bryce Young’s development after a promising late-2024 stretch. Additions like Tetairoa McMillan and a strong RB tandem (Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle) bolster the offense, but their defense, the league’s worst in 2024, remains a work in progress despite Derrick Brown’s return. GM Dan Morgan’s defensive investments need time to gel. The Jaguars’ pass rush (led by Josh Hines-Allen) could pressure Young into mistakes, while Lawrence should exploit Carolina’s secondary. However, an upset is possible if Young builds on his 2024 momentum and Carolina’s run game controls the clock. Simulations give Jacksonville a 55-60% win probability, with a tight spread (-2.5).

Score Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Carolina Panthers 20 (Jaguars cover -2.5, under 45.5 total points).

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET (Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH)

 The Bengals, a perennial AFC contender, look to avoid their notorious slow starts (1-4 in 2024) with a favorable Week 1 matchup. Joe Burrow, fully healthy, torched Cleveland in 2024 (2-0, 5 TDs, 0 INTs), and his weapons—Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and rookie Jermaine Burton—form a lethal passing attack. Cincinnati’s defense, bolstered by offseason moves, should handle Cleveland’s shaky QB situation. Playing at home, where they’re 6-1 SU in recent openers, gives them an edge, though their run game (27th in 2024) needs improvement to balance the offense.

Cleveland’s 2024 season (3-14) was a disaster, and their 2025 outlook is bleak with a quarterback mess (Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, both rookies, competing with no clear starter). The Browns’ defense, once elite, regressed (18th in DVOA), and their offensive line struggles against Cincinnati’s pass rush (Trey Hendrickson led with 14 sacks). Nick Chubb’s return helps, but the Browns lack offensive firepower to keep up. Burrow should throw for 300+ yards, while Cleveland’s rookie QB could throw multiple picks. Simulations heavily favor Cincinnati (70-75% win probability, -6 spread).

Score Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 31, Cleveland Browns 13 (Bengals cover -13.5, under 46.5 total points).

New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET (Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA)

 The Patriots, under Jerod Mayo, are a sleeper team after a 5-12 2024. Rookie QB Drake Maye, now with a year under Josh McDaniels’ system, showed promise late last season, and his mobility could exploit Vegas’ 22nd-ranked run defense. Rhamondre Stevenson and a revamped offensive line provide balance, while Christian Gonzalez anchors a top-10 secondary. New England’s pass rush (42 sacks in 2024) should pressure Geno Smith, who struggles on the road (45% completion rate in 2024 losses).

The Raiders, led by Pete Carroll, lean on Geno Smith and Maxx Crosby but have a “hollow roster” per analysts. Their offense lacks playmakers beyond Davante Adams, and the offensive line is a liability against New England’s front. Vegas’ defense, with Crosby’s 12+ sacks, can disrupt, but their secondary is thin. The Patriots’ home advantage and coaching edge (Mayo’s defensive schemes vs. Carroll’s predictable play-calling) tilt this game. Simulations give New England a 60-65% win probability (-2 spread).

Score Prediction: New England Patriots 24, Las Vegas Raiders 17 (Patriots cover -3.5, under 44.5 total points).

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)

The Colts (9-8 in 2024) aim for a fast start after missing the playoffs. Anthony Richardson’s dual-threat ability (15 total TDs in 2024) pairs with Jonathan Taylor (1,500+ yards), but the offensive line must protect against Miami’s aggressive front (Jaelan Phillips, Chop Robinson). Indy’s defense, middle-of-the-pack, added pieces but struggles with speed-based offenses like Miami’s. Playing indoors helps their passing game, and a 3-1 September projection boosts confidence. 

Miami’s 2024 season (6-11) was derailed by Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries and road woes (26th in road cover rate). Tua’s health is critical; when healthy, he’s efficient (3,600 yards, 25 TDs in 2023), but the Dolphins’ fragile roster and weak interior line could falter against Indy’s front. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle stretch defenses, but Miami’s run game is nonexistent. The Colts’ balanced attack should outlast Miami’s one-dimensional offense. Simulations favor Indy slightly (55-60%, -1 spread).

Score Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 27, Miami Dolphins 24 (Colts cover -2.5, over 45.5 total points).

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET (Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD)

 The Commanders, a 2024 surprise (10-7, playoffs), are a trendy pick with Jayden Daniels entering Year 2. Daniels’ dynamic play (2,800 pass yards, 800 rush yards in 2024) and weapons like Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz make their offense potent. Their defense, revamped under Dan Quinn, ranked top-10 in points allowed and should overwhelm the Giants’ shaky line. Washington’s home dominance (6-2 in 2024) and 7.5-point spread reflect their edge.

The Giants, projected at 5.5 wins, are in rebuild mode. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart faces a brutal schedule, and their offense (Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson) lacks consistency. The defense, with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, can pressure, but the secondary is exploitable. Daniels should run circles around New York’s front, and Washington’s pass rush could force turnovers. Simulations give the Commanders a 70-75% win probability.

Score Prediction: Washington Commanders 30, New York Giants 16 (Commanders cover -10.5, over 45.5 total points).

New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET (Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA)

The Jets, with Aaron Rodgers (or Justin Fields as a backup), aim to rebound from a 7-10 2024. Rodgers’ drama and age (41) raise concerns, but his arm talent and Breece Hall’s 1,200-yard rushing make the offense dangerous. The Jets’ defense, led by Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, is elite (top-5 in yards allowed), but their road struggles (3-6 in 2024) could show against Pittsburgh’s physicality. 

The Steelers, with Justin Fields or Russell Wilson at QB, went 9-8 in 2024 but missed the playoffs. Their defense, anchored by T.J. Watt and Patrick Queen, is a nightmare for opposing QBs (48 sacks in 2024). Offensively, George Pickens’ departure hurts, but Najee Harris and a strong line keep them balanced. Pittsburgh’s home-field edge (6-2 in 2024) and coaching (Mike Tomlin’s 18-3 home opener record) tilt this game. Expect a low-scoring slugfest, with the Steelers’ run game prevailing. Simulations favor Pittsburgh (60-65%, -3 spread).

Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 20, New York Jets 17 (Steelers cover -2.5, under 43.5 total points).

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA)

 This NFC South opener pits two teams with playoff aspirations. The Buccaneers, projected as division winners (9-8), rely on Baker Mayfield’s efficiency (3,900 yards, 28 TDs in 2024) and Mike Evans’ record-setting 1,000-yard streak. Their defense, with Vita Vea and Lavonte David, is stout against the run, which could neutralize Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson. Tampa’s road woes (4-5 in 2024) are a concern, but their experience gives them an edge.

Atlanta, with Michael Penix Jr. in his second year, hopes to build on a 7-10 season. Penix has weapons (Drake London, Kyle Pitts), but his inexperience (first NFL start) could lead to mistakes against Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy scheme. The Falcons’ defense, improved under Raheem Morris, struggles with consistency. Playing at home helps, but Tampa’s veteran savvy should prevail in a close game. Simulations give the Bucs a 55-60% win probability (-1.5 spread).

Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Bucs cover -1.5, over 48.5 total points).

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 4:05 PM ET (Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)

 The 49ers, after a 6-11 season, aim to rebound with a favorable schedule. Brock Purdy, with Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, leads a top-10 offense, and their line protects well. The defense, despite turnover, remains strong (top-12 in DVOA), with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner anchoring. Seattle’s weak offensive line (30th in pass-block win rate) is a mismatch against San Francisco’s pass rush.

Seattle, with Sam Darnold at QB, went 9-8 in 2024 but faces uncertainty with J.J. McCarthy’s development. Their offense relies on DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker III, but the line’s struggles could lead to 3-4 sacks. The Seahawks’ defense, led by Devon Witherspoon, is scrappy but overmatched. San Francisco’s home dominance (7-2 in 2024) and Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling give them the edge. Simulations favor the 49ers (65-70%, -4.5 spread).

Score Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 27, Seattle Seahawks 20 (49ers cover -4.5, under 47.5 total points).

Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 4:05 PM ET (Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN)

 The Broncos, a 2024 playoff team (10-7), are a darling pick with Bo Nix and Sean Payton. Nix’s rookie growth (2,500 yards, 18 TDs) and a top-tier defense (league-high 50 sacks, Pat Surtain II) make them formidable. Tennessee’s rookie QB Cam Ward, the No. 1 pick, faces a brutal debut against Denver’s pass rush, which could force 2-3 turnovers. Denver’s offense, with Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams, is balanced but not explosive.

The Titans (6.5 projected wins) rely on Ward, Tony Pollard, and Calvin Ridley, but their line is shaky, and the defense lacks playmakers outside of Jeffery Simmons. Playing at home helps, but Denver’s experience and defensive dominance should overwhelm Ward’s inexperience. Simulations give Denver a 65-70% win probability (-6 spread).

Score Prediction: Denver Broncos 24, Tennessee Titans 14 (Broncos cover -6.5, under 42.5 total points).

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 4:25 PM ET (Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI)

 This NFC North showdown features two playoff hopefuls. The Lions, 12-5 in 2024, are in their championship window, with Jared Goff (4,200 yards, 30 TDs) and a top-5 offense (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta). Their defense, despite losing Aidan Hutchinson to retirement, remains solid (top-10 in points allowed). Detroit’s 6-1 SU record vs. Green Bay since 2021, including three straight wins at Lambeau, gives them confidence.

The Packers (9-8 in 2024) are ascending with Jordan Love, who threw for 3,800 yards and 27 TDs. Josh Jacobs and a deep receiving corps (Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs) add firepower, but their offensive line struggles against Detroit’s pass rush. Green Bay’s defense, with Rashan Gary and Xavier McKinney, is improved but vulnerable to Goff’s precision. Home-field advantage helps, but Detroit’s recent dominance and road cover rate (87.5% in 2024) tilt the scales. Simulations give the Lions a 52-55% win probability (+1.5 spread).

Score Prediction: Detroit Lions 28, Green Bay Packers 24 (Lions cover +1.5, over 47.5 total points).

Los Angeles Rams vs. Houston Texans

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 4:25 PM ET (NRG Stadium, Houston, TX)

 The Rams, a 2024 playoff team (10-7), are Super Bowl contenders with Matthew Stafford (3,900 yards, 26 TDs) and a loaded roster. Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams form a dynamic offense, while the defense, led by Jared Verse (10 sacks), exploits weak lines. Houston’s offensive line, a 2024 liability, could allow 3-4 sacks, limiting C.J. Stroud’s time.

The Texans, AFC South champs (10-7), rely on Stroud’s elite play (4,000+ yards) and a balanced attack (Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs). Their defense, with Will Anderson Jr., is top-10 but faces a tough test in L.A.’s passing game. Playing at home helps, but the Rams’ depth and Sean McVay’s play-calling give them an edge. Simulations favor Los Angeles slightly (55-60%, -2 spread).

Score Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 27, Houston Texans 24 (Rams cover -2.5, over 46.5 total points).

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

Date/Time: September 7, 2025, 8:20 PM ET (Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY)

 This Sunday night clash pits two AFC heavyweights. The Bills, projected at 11.2 wins, dominated the AFC East (12-5 in 2024) with Josh Allen (2024 MVP, 4,500 total yards). James Cook and a revamped receiving corps (Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir) keep the offense humming, while the defense, with Joey Bosa, is top-10. Buffalo’s home-field edge (7-1 in 2024) is massive, but their secondary must contain Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens (12-5 in 2024) have a deep roster, with Jackson (4,200 pass yards, 800 rush yards) and Derrick Henry (1,500+ yards). Their defense, the league’s best in the second half of 2024, could stifle Buffalo’s run game. However, Baltimore’s road playoff struggles (1-4 in Jackson’s career) and a tough schedule loom. This game’s high total (51.5) reflects offensive firepower, but Buffalo’s home dominance tips it. Simulations favor the Bills (55-60%, -1.5 spread).

Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 31, Baltimore Ravens 27 (Bills cover -1.5, over 51.5 total points).

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

Date/Time: September 8, 2025, 8:15 PM ET (Soldier Field, Chicago, IL)

The Bears, with Caleb Williams and new head coach Ben Johnson, are a hyped team after a 7-10 2024. Williams’ growth (2,800 yards, 18 TDs as a rookie) and weapons (DJ Moore, Rome Odunze) make the offense potent. The offensive line, rebuilt via free agency, faces a tough test against Minnesota’s pass rush (Brian Flores’ schemes). Chicago’s defense, with Montez Sweat and Jaylon Johnson, is top-12 and should contain J.J. McCarthy. 

The Vikings, with McCarthy as the new starter, went 8-9 in 2024. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are elite, but the offensive line’s struggles could lead to sacks. Minnesota’s defense, led by Flores, thrives on blitzing, but their secondary is vulnerable to Williams’ deep throws. Chicago’s home edge and hype give them a slight advantage, though a tough midseason schedule looms. Simulations favor the Bears (55-60%, -1 spread).

Score Prediction: Chicago Bears 23, Minnesota Vikings 20 (Bears cover -1.5, under 45.5 total points).